Hezbollah retains its dominance of Lebanon’s political system, with its parliamentary faction still blocking the selection of a new president in Lebanon as it has been for nearly two years, and its TV station Al-Manar continues to incite a religious war against Israel and the West. And yet, the death of Nasrallah does mark the end of the Hezbollah we have come to know.

Over the past three decades as its undisputed leader, “Samehto” (as he is called by his followers, meaning “the honorable”) shaped Hezbollah in his image. The strong connection to Shi’ite traditions, the loyal adherence to military ‘equations’ and the regular sermons of fire, are all the result of Nasrallah’s strategy of unrelenting radicalism and mischief, both domestic and external. The 2008 elimination of Hezbollah’s military leader Imad Mughniya in an Israeli car bombing in Syria led Nasrallah to consolidate even more authority.

Many are currently wondering who will deliver Nasrallah’s eulogy? It would appear the question is more than a simple jest. The top name to succeed Nasrallah is the head of Hezbollah’s executive council and the nephew of ‘Samehto’, Hashem Safieddine. The man appears to tick all the boxes. He comes from the right family and is married to the daughter of former IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. He’s Lebanese but has strong ties to Iran. A Shi’ite cleric with a high public profile.

It’s unclear, however, whether even he is still alive. Safieddine is believed to have attended the meeting in which Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s highest ranking military commander Ali Karki were killed. After the attack Safieddine posted on his twitter/X account that he was alive and well. Safieddine’s deputy, Nabil Qaouk, was eliminated in another Israeli airstrike on Hezbollah’s Beirut Dahiya stronghold on Saturday. But neither Safieddine nor Qaouk would have been able to fill Nasrallah’s shoes. And until Safieddine appears in public, it is not clear who will.

Whoever ends up as the next leader of Hezbollah will determine the path of the Iranian proxy from here and whether it can recover from the last catastrophic fortnight. A Lebanon-leaning successor could be independent enough to decide it’s time for Hezbollah to cut its losses, pack up its forces from the border with Israel and retreat north of the Litani River. Under Nasrallah that would have been unthinkable. With someone else at the helm, it’s at least a possibility. The other option is Iran ‘parachuting’ in an official of its own, drawing it closer to Tehran, and completing its takeover of Hezbollah and the entire state of Lebanon.

It’s a decision which will shape the future of Hezbollah, Lebanon and the region for years to come.

MARANATHA!